China Logistics Economy Watch aims to highlight certain interesting issues of logistics, transport with regards to the Greater China economy, to give readers an alternative view and perspective - thinking out of the box - so that they can form their own opinions about those issues that might be merely everyday issues, not necessarily controversial.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
China hikes 2009 growth estimate to 9.1%
The government raised its estimate of 2009 growth yesterday from 8.7 per cent - already the fastest among major economies - to 9.1 per cent, boosting China's economic output to the equivalent of US$4.98 trillion.
That suggested Japan clung to its title as the second-largest economy with just under US$5.1 trillion in output.
Beijing propelled its recovery from the global slump with a four trillion yuan stimulus and record 2009 bank lending of 9.6 trillion yuan. But the country's Communist leaders now worry that that drove overspending on factories and other facilities, which could lead to economic problems if producers are forced to slash prices in glutted markets or cannot repay bank loans.
'There definitely are risks of overcapacity from all this investment,' said Citigroup economist Ken Peng.
He said Beijing is likely to have to step in and repay at least some of the debts of overextended state companies or local governments.
Makers of steel and textiles are likely to be hit hardest because they have the biggest oversupply and foreign demand for their goods is weak, said Lu Zhengwei, senior economist for Industrial Bank in Shanghai.
Steel producers, which expanded output as demand from stimulus-financed construction projects surged, have 16 million tonnes of unsold stock, state television said yesterday. It said mills are selling steel at prices below cost.
Yuan hoarding causes shortage in HK...
A local bank manager is not surprised that yuan stocks have ran out as supply is tight.
"People are banking on reports that the United States is pressing for a 10 percent yuan appreciation, despite Beijing saying any appreciation will be gradual," he told The Standard on condition of anonymity. "People want to make a fast buck since interest in the Hong Kong dollar is low. So the yuan is a sure bet for anybody."
A source at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said the shortage at money changing counters could be due to another factor - hoarding.
"Money changers are expecting the yuan to appreciate faster and sooner, and so they are holding on to their stocks," the source said. "The fact that there is no cap on conversions to yuan has put them a difficult position in both quoting and selling of the currency.
"They obviously do not want to sell large amounts of yuan."
Local banks have confirmed they have an unlimited supply of yuan, which they get directly from the mainland central bank, the People's Bank of China.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
US crackdown on illegal Cosmetics labels...
The U.S. Food & Drug Administration's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) will soon crackdown on cosmetics product labels bearing illegal drug claims, including “SPF,” “anti-aging,” or “anti-wrinkle,” according to Benjamin L. England, former 17-year FDA veteran and FDAImports.com, LLC Founder.
A cosmetics manufacturer or importer in the USA will be potentially subject to IA 66-38, and may face product labelling compliance challenges that could lead to financial losses if no action is taken.
FDA issued Import Alert #66-38, “Skin Care Products Labeled As Anti-Aging Creams” (IA 66-38) in 1988, subjecting cosmetic manufacturers - including several large, non-U.S. cosmetics importers Estee Lauder, L’Oreal, Avon, Almay and Fleur de Sante - to “intensive surveillance” for importing cosmetics with drug claims on cosmetic product labeling.
FDA appears to be cracking down on importers whose cosmetic product labels bear illegal drug claims. As recently as April 2010, FDA added 93 cosmetics products and four firms to the IA 66-38 “Yellow List,” which subjects those companies’ imported cosmetics to “intensive FDA surveillance” including increased import field examinations.
These additions to the alert show that FDA is getting serious,” said England.
We are not sure if this crackdown will impact Chinese exporters of cosmetic products to the USA, but it is better to be forewarned.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Warning over potential crisis looming
About 40% of new loans in the first quarter went to local government bodies, with analysts warning that a potential crisis is looming, according to a China Daily report.
Wei Jianing, deputy head of macroeconomic research department at the DRC, said the scale and debts of these local government-owned bodies - mainly financing companies using land and fiscal revenue as collateral - has been swelling rapidly, and may pose great risks to the economy.
"In the past, a government usually had two to four financing arms under its jurisdiction, but the number grew to 10 in 2009 under the country's proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy needs," he said, adding that the various levels of government investment and financing companies totaled more than 3,800, 70 percent of which are at district or county level.
The debts of these arms have surged to 6 trillion yuan (US$879.12 billion) in 2009 from 1 trillion yuan in early 2008, said Wei. In 2009, new loans to those financial arms reached about 3.8 trillion yuan, 40 percent of the 9.59 trillion in new credit from China's banks, he said.
Jia Kang, director of the Institute of Research at the Ministry of Finance, also said this month that he is not sure about the exact amount of local government debts, but said some researchers estimate they could amount to more than 8 trillion or even 11 trillion yuan.
Analysts said the central government's recent tightening of the housing market would greatly affect local fiscal revenue and make it very difficult for the governments to pay their debts.
According to the Ministry of Finance, in 2009 the nation pocketed 1.42 trillion yuan in land transfer revenue, about 3 percent of gross domestic product during that period.
Even when interest payments are not taken into account, it would take local governments four to five years to repay the 6 trillion yuan in loans.
"Revenue generated by selling land accounted for 45 percent of total local fiscal revenue last year. If the real estate market slumps and developers become hesitant about buying land, a crisis would erupt in local finances," said Tao Dong, chief analyst with UBS Securities in Asia.
Experts concerned over huge loans to local govts 12 listed banks' property loans total 5t yuan
As the firms were set up mainly to attract capital used in infrastructure and the construction of other public facilities, a major driving force of China's economic growth, the whole economy may be dragged down as crisis fans out, said Wang Zhihao, China research director of Standard Chartered Bank.
But some are more optimistic about the impact of the debts. "I don't believe the debts could pose much threat," said Jia, adding the biggest problem in local financing lies in the severe irregularities of borrowing.
He said the irregularities were reflected in the huge mismatch between the borrowed amount and the ability to repay in some regions. "But if we fight the fire only when the problems are already very evident, the social impact would be much greater."
In addition, the financing firms' executives, mainly government officials, often lack the necessary experience in management and risk prevention, added Wei.
Shanghai multiple house owners to pay tax...
The draft rules, which are still under discussion and subject to change, include applying existing commercial-use property taxes to owners of multiple residential properties, the newspaper quoted an unnamed source close to the Shanghai municipal government as saying.
Extending existing commercial-use property taxes to owners of multiple residential properties would simplify the legislative process, and property owners would be evaluated by their families' per capita living space, China Watch Blog reported, citing a source.
If property owners meet the tax-paying threshold, they would pay 0.8 percentage point of their property's assessed market value annually, the source said.
Detailed rules would be issued as early as this month, the source said.
The Shanghai Municipal Housing Support and Building Administration Bureau didn't comment on the rules when contacted by the Global Times Wednesday.
Experts said imposing a property tax would be the toughest measure yet to combat property speculators.
"The tax measure is aimed at increasing the efficiency of residential property usage, lessening the gap between the rich and the poor, and increasing local governments' fiscal revenues," said Yin Zhongli, a researcher with the Institute of Finance and Banking at the China Academy of Social Sciences. "It is definitely a trend for the whole country in the future."
Media reported in April that China would impose trial property taxes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Chongqing. However, Beijing and Shenzhen did not adopt a property tax in their recently-released local housing market measures. Chongqing mayor Huang Qifan told local media on April 20 that the city had proposed to the central government a plan for a property tax for high-end properties.
"Shanghai may be the first city in China to impose a property tax," said Yang Hongxu, an analyst with Shanghai-based E-House China Research Development Institute. "The property bubble is similar in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen, but the Shanghai government faces more pressure due to limited land supply for commercial residential property this year."
Shanghai plans to supply 330 hectares of land for commercial residential property this year, while Beijing plans to supply about 1,250 hectares of land for the same purpose.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
China reports April CPI up 2.8pc...
For the first four months, China's CPI rose 2.4% year on year. The producer price index (PPI), a major measure of inflation at the wholesale level, grew 6.8% year on year in April and was up 0.9 percentage point from March.
In April, consumer prices in China's urban areas increased 2.7% and in rural regions by 3%. Food prices, which accounted for about a third of the weighting in calculating the CPI, gained 5.9% during the month.
China is targeting a rise in consumer prices of around 3% this year, according to a government work report delivered by Premier Wen Jiabao in March at the annual legislative session.
China's CPI ended nine months of decline in November of 2009, when it rose 0.6 percentage point, as the nation's economy rebounded strongly ever since.
Property price woes in China...
According to China Watch Blog, industry experts said at a forum on Monday that China's property prices will stabilize in the second quarter of this year due to the government's tightening of real estate policies and attempt to improve imbalances between supply and demand. That's good news, but others are worried about what this means to property prices.
"In cities that have experienced excessive property price growth, there will be bigger fluctuations in the following three months, but the decrease will differ from city to city," says Nie Meisheng, president of China Real Estate Chamber of Commerce.
However, experts are worried that tightening policies may deter property developers from starting new projects and purchasing land, thereby cutting the supply and pushing up prices next year.
Both central and local governments have launched a string of measures to curb soaring property prices and investment-oriented home purchases, such as raising down-payments and mortgage rates for second and third homes, and even restricting the number of apartments a family can purchase, People's Daily reported.
Those measures instantly chilled the property market in key cities, with transactions and prices falling. Statistics from the China Index Academy show that among the 35 major cities it monitors, 26 cities saw transactions dip last week, with an average fall of more than 20 percent.
The average price of home deals in the southern city of Shenzhen was 19,271 yuan ($2,823) per square metre, down 25.44% from the previous week, leading to the biggest drop among 35 cities.
Beijing was down 18% to 15,707 yuan per sq m, and Shanghai was down 12.2% to 13,246 yuan per sq m. Hangzhou, capital of East China's Zhejiang province, however, reported a 49.2% increase in transactions and 25% growth in price, with the average price reaching 25,409 yuan last week.
Let's wait and see what happens in the next few months.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Visit voiceofreason.com
Visited Voice of Reason website - and thought it was good to share what we read:
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We have recently moved all of the video files to separate sites. Try typing in www.pddrama.com or www.pdcomedy.com if you were looking for a video file.
Carbon tax likely, expert forecasts...
"We expect China will start to levy various taxes only if they are helpful in mitigating greenhouse emissions and developing a low-carbon economy," Jiang Kejun, a senior researcher with the Energy Research Institute under the National Development and Reform Commission, was quoted as saying.
"I think a carbon tax is likely to be levied during the 12th Five-year plan (2011-15) period," said Jiang. The National Development and Reform Commission is a Cabinet department responsible for the country's mid- and long-term development plan.
Apart from a carbon tax, Jiang said the government may begin to levy environmental and resource taxes, and the country will greatly boost subsidies to support low-carbon technology research and development.
At a weekend climate change forum organized by the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges, Jiang said that the government is serious about realizing its target of cutting carbon intensity by 40-45% by 2020 from 2005 levels and the government will implement "tougher measures" in the coming five years to realize the green goal.
Jiang said the taxation and fiscal incentives are just part of a portfolio of possible policy changes, which may turn into reality when China implements its low-carbon development pathway.
"We can possibly surpass the United States between 2020 to 2025 in terms of research and development investment," said Jiang. "If this comes true, we can start to dream of becoming a low-carbon technology leader in the world."
However, Jiang is pessimistic about the coming 10 years. China's total 400-billion-yuan ($59 billion) investment in scientific research and development, Jiang said, "is only about one sixth of the US's total, or only equal to what the US invests in clean energy research."
In clean technology research, Jiang said: "If we don't strive for radical efforts, we will still be left behind by the US, Europe and some other countries and regions."
China's April trade surplus dips...
Picked this up from GCTL8.com's China Watch Blog that China posted a trade surplus of $1.68 billion in April, down 87% from a year earlier.
The report quoted a Xinhua report, citing the General Administration of Customs (GAC), as saying that China's exports in April totaled $119.92 billion, up 30.5% from a year ago and 6.3% from March. While imports reached $118.24 billion, up 49.7% year-on-year.
Combining imports and exports, China's April external trade rose 39.4 percent year-on-year to $238.16 billion.
Taking the first four months together, China's January-April external trade increased 42.7 percent from a year earlier to $855.99 billion.
From January to April, China's exports rose 29.2% year-on-year to $436.05 billion while imports grew 60.1% to $419.94 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $16.11 billion in the first four months, sharply down 78.6% from a year earlier.
According to the GAC figures for the January-April period, the European Union remained China's largest trading partner, with China-EU bilateral trade topping $137.77 billion, up 34.6% from the same period last year.
January-April trade between China and the United States, the country's second largest trading partner, increased 25 percent year-on-year to $107.18 billion.
Japan outpaced the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as China's third largest trading partner in the first four months, revealed the GAC statistics.
January-April trade between China and Japan gained 37.5% to $88.66 billion, up 34.6% from a year ago. In the first four months, China's trade deficit with Japan more than doubled to $17.72 billion.
China also recorded a trade deficit of $5.87 billion with ASEAN from January to April, compared with $830 million of trade surplus with ASEAN in the same period last year.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Think tank urges widening of yuan band...
China should widen the yuan's daily trading transaction band and return to the exchange rate mechanism that was in place before the global financial crisis, the Business Post reported, citing a government think tank's report.
We picked this report up from China Watch Blog, which said it learnt that Beijing allowed the yuan to gradually rise 19% against the US dollar, after a 2.1% revaluation in July 2005, before freezing it near 6.83 to the dollar in July 2008 to provide stability during the worldwide credit crunch.
"In response to constantly growing pressure for renminbi (yuan) appreciation, we should consider appropriately expanding the currency''s floating band," said the State Information Centre (SIC), a research outfit under the National Development and Reform Commission, the powerful economic planning agency.
The People's Bank of China now lets the yuan rise or fall by 0.5 percentage point a day against the US dollar from a midpoint it sets each morning. In practice, the full width of the band has rarely been used.
In a report published in the official China Securities Journal, the SIC recommended that moves in the yuan should be gradual and "controllable" - the long-standing formula used by mainland policymakers.
"With expectations of yuan appreciation gradually building in the international community, it would be better to time the widening of the yuan's band before more hot money rushes into China," it said.
The think tank also said economic growth was likely to slow moderately this quarter, while inflation would accelerate. Gross domestic product growth from a year earlier would ease to 10.% form 11.9% in the first quarter, the SIC forecast.
Consumer inflation is expected to rise 4.2% in the first three months, owing to rising import prices, a low base effect from 2009, and the impact of bad weather. Private economists also expect inflation to rise and growth to slow down this quarter.
Saturday, May 8, 2010
Exporters, retailers struggle over biz...
Monday, April 5, 2010
China Practical Mobile Phone Economy Index
News of Future (www.newsoffuture.com ) published a news report citing Chinese economist Lin Yifu who estimates that there will 1 billion mobile phone users in China by year 2020, up from 449 million users in October 2006.
So, we think the mobile phone should be used as an index to measure the economic health of the country. By doing so, all countries in the world can similarly use this same index, which we propose to call China Practical Mobile Phone Economy Index. Below is the report:
1 Billion Mobile Phone Users in China
The worldwide use of mobile phones will most likely reach another significant mark later this year, when passing 5 billion mobile phone users, about 65% of the world’s population.
India is still the country adding most users in the world each month and will most likely pass China in total number of mobile phone users within the next 10 years, from their current 910 million.
China also has the most Internet users in the world, 400 million, and their impact on the Internet has been noticed significantly over the last years. One reason for this, a part from the number of users is the number of English-speaking Chinese, which has increased to almost match the native English speakers in the world.
Censorship Index update
Simon Singh today won a crucial ruling on meaning and fair comment at the Royal Courts of Justice. Simon Singh has spent two years and £200,000 on this case in defending himself. The pre-trial appeal ruling on meaning in the case of BCA v Singh was presided over by the Lord Chief Justice, Lord Judge, Master of the Rolls, Lord Neuberger, and Lord Justice Sedley — one of the most high-powered panels of judges ever to preside on a single case.
Singh is being sued for defamation by the British Chiropractic Association’s (BCA) for comments in a 2008 article for the Guardian newspaper in which he criticised chiropractic and claimed the BCA promoted “bogus” treatments, DESPITE THERE not being “a jot” of evidence of their effectiveness. In May 2009 the High Court gave a negative ruling on the meaning of Singh’s article, when Mr Justice Eady ruled that the author’s use of the word “bogus” implied that the BCA deliberately endorsed treatments they knew to be questionable.
The judges today rejected Eady’s interpretation and voiced concern that the case ‘has almost certainly had a chilling effect on public debate which might otherwise have assisted potential patients to make informed choices about the possible use of chiropractic.’
In a ruling of immense significance that will free scientific debate from the chill of libel action, they recommended that scientific controversies should be settled by methods of science rather than legal action and recommended that the defence ‘fair comment’ be replaced with ‘honest opinion’, as a more robust defence to the right to free expression.
‘If the BCA continues in its pursuit of suing Simon Singh after such a damning judgment,’ said Jo Glanville, Index on Censorship. ‘It may soon be in need of chiropractic treatment itself. The ruling today is a significant victory for the defence of freedom of speech. It’s essential that scientists and academics are allowed to criticise and question treatments, medical practice and research – and today goes a significant way towards lifting the chill on freedom of expression.
The Libel Reform Campaign is calling for a Libel Reform Act, for further information go to www.libelreform.org
For further comment contact
Jo Glanville, Editor, Index on Censorship jo@indexoncensorship.org +44 (0) 20 7324 2531
Padraig Reidy, News editor, Index on Censorship, padraig@indexoncensorship.org +44 (0) 20 7324 2526
The Libel Reform Campaign is a coalition of English PEN, Index on Censorship and Sense About Science. The campaign has over 44,500 signatories to its petition to reform England’s libel laws and for a Libel Reform Bill in the next parliament.
I Love You in 100 Languages
How to say I Love You in 100 Languages
English - I love you
Afrikaans - Ek het jou lief
Albanian - Te dua
Arabic - Ana behibak (to male)
Arabic - Ana behibek (to female)
Armenian - Yes kez sirumem
Bambara - M'bi fe
Bengali - Ami tomake bhalobashi (pronounced: Amee toe-ma-kee bhalo-bashee)
Belarusian - Ya tabe kahayu
Bisaya - Nahigugma ako kanimo
Bulgarian - Obicham te
Cambodian - Soro lahn nhee ah
Catalan - T'estimo
Cherokee - Tsi ge yu i
Cheyenne - Ne mohotatse
Chichewa - Ndimakukonda
Chinese
Cantonese - Ngo oiy ney a
Mandarin - Wo ai ni
Comanche - U kamakutu nu
(pronounced oo----ka-ma- koo-too-- ---nu) -- Thx Tony
Corsican - Ti tengu caru (to male)
Cree - Kisakihitin
Creol - Mi aime jou
Croatian - Volim te
Czech - Miluji te
Danish - Jeg Elsker Dig
Dutch - Ik hou van jou
Elvish - Amin mela lle (from The Lord of The Rings, by J.R.R. Tolkien)
Esperanto - Mi amas vin
Estonian - Ma armastan sind
Ethiopian - Afgreki'
Faroese - Eg elski teg
Farsi - Doset daram
Filipino - Mahal kita
Finnish - Mina rakastan sinua
French - Je t'aime, Je t'adore
Frisian - Ik hald fan dy
Gaelic - Ta gra agam ort
Georgian - Mikvarhar
German - Ich liebe dich
Greek - S'agapo
Gujarati - Hoo thunay prem karoo choo
Hiligaynon - Palangga ko ikaw
Hawaiian - Aloha Au Ia`oe
Hebrew
To female - "ani ohev otach" (said by male) "ohevet Otach" (said by female)
To male - "ani ohev otcha" (said by male) "Ohevet ot'cha" (said by female)
Hiligaynon - Guina higugma ko ikaw
Hindi - Hum Tumhe Pyar Karte hae
Hmong - Kuv hlub koj
Hopi - Nu' umi unangwa'ta
Hungarian - Szeretlek
Icelandic - Eg elska tig
Ilonggo - Palangga ko ikaw
Indonesian - Saya cinta padamu
Inuit - Negligevapse
Irish - Taim i' ngra leat
Italian - Ti amo
Japanese - Aishiteru or Anata ga daisuki desu
Kannada - Naanu ninna preetisuttene
Kapampangan - Kaluguran daka
Kiswahili - Nakupenda
Konkani - Tu magel moga cho
Korean - Sarang Heyo or Nanun tangshinul sarang hamnida
Latin - Te amo
Latvian - Es tevi miilu
Lebanese - Bahibak
Lithuanian - Tave myliu
Luxembourgeois - Ech hun dech gaer
Macedonian - Te Sakam
Malay - Saya cintakan mu / Aku cinta padamu
Malayalam - Njan Ninne Premikunnu
Maltese - Inhobbok
Marathi - Me tula prem karto
Mohawk - Kanbhik
Moroccan - Ana moajaba bik
Nahuatl - Ni mits neki
Navaho - Ayor anosh'ni
Ndebele - Niyakutanda
Norwegian
Bokmaal - Jeg elsker deg
Nyonrsk - Eg elskar deg
Pandacan - Syota na kita!!
Pangasinan - Inaru Taka
Papiamento - Mi ta stimabo
Persian - Doo-set daaram
Pig Latin - Iay ovlay ouyay
Polish - Kocham Ciebie
Portuguese - Eu te amo
Romanian - Te iubesc
Russian - Ya tebya liubliu
Scot Gaelic - Tha gra\dh agam ort
Serbian - Volim te
Setswana - Ke a go rata
Sign Language - ,\,,/ (represents position of fingers when signing 'I Love You')
Sindhi - Maa tokhe pyar kendo ahyan
Sioux - Techihhila
Slovak - Lu`bim ta
Slovenian - Ljubim te
Spanish - Te quiero / Te amo
Swahili - Ninapenda wewe
Swedish - Jag alskar dig
Swiss-German - Ich lieb Di
Surinam - Mi lobi joe
Tagalog - Mahal kita
Taiwanese - Wa ga ei li
Tahitian - Ua Here Vau Ia Oe
Tamil - Nan unnai kathalikaraen
Telugu - Nenu ninnu premistunnanu
Thai
To female - Phom rak khun
To male - Chan rak khun
Informal - Rak te
Tunisian - Ha eh bak
Turkish - Seni Seviyorum
Ukrainian - Ya tebe kahayu
Urdu - mai aap say pyaar karta hoo
Vietnamese
To female - Anh ye^u em
To male - Em ye^u anh
Welsh - 'Rwy'n dy garu di
Yiddish - Ikh hob dikh
Yoruba - Mo ni fe
Zazi - Ezhele hezdege
Zuni - Tom ho' ichema
Woman and Man's relationship
An English professor wrote the words:
“A woman without her man is nothing”
On the chalkboard and asked the students to punctuate it correctly.
The males in the class wrote:
“A woman, without her man, is nothing.”
The females in the class wrote:
“A woman, without her, man is nothing.”
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Moral of the Lesson: Punctuation is powerful.
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